CNN’s Harry Enten warned on Tuesday that traditionally Donald Trump has been underestimated within the polls, regardless of surveys displaying Vice President Harris gaining momentum in key swing states.
Enten famous Harris has made important positive aspects in polling in opposition to Trump, which appeared to be displaying “clear momentum” and enthusiasm for the vice chairman.
“But I just want to take a step back and sort of point out we’ve kind of been here before,” Enten continued. “So August 13, how far were the polls off in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin? And this is in 2016 and 2020 — Trump was [underestimated] both times around, and by significant margins. Take a look here, in 2016, the average poll in those states that I mentioned, those Great Lakes battleground states, Trump was underestimated by nine points on average at this point in 2016. How about 2020? It wasn’t a one off. Look at this: He was underestimated by five points on average.”
He identified that Harris’ benefits in the important thing swing states, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, was about 4 factors, based on New York Instances-Sienna School polling.
CNN’s Harry Enten says polling has underestimated Donald Trump in previous elections. (Screenshot/CNN)
KAMALA HARRIS BEATING TRUMP IN ‘VIBES,’ SAYS CNN’S FAREED ZAKARIA
In response to the ballot launched over the weekend, Harris topped Trump 50% to 46% amongst seemingly voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
“The bottom line is this: If you have any idea- if you’re a Kamala Harris fan and you want to rip open the champagne bottle, pop that cork, do not do it. Donald Trump is very much in this race. If we have a polling shift like we’ve seen in prior years, from now until the final result, Donald Trump would actually win. I’m not saying that’s going to happen, but I am saying that he is very much in this ball game based upon where he is right now, and compare that to where he was in prior years,” Enten added.
Enten stated on Monday that Trump and operating mate JD Vance had been shedding to Harris on favorability, including, “the Democratic ticket is better liked than the Republican ticket.”
He additionally stated Trump had a 10-point lead in key swing states over President Biden, when he was nonetheless within the race, on points most necessary to voters. Nonetheless, Enten stated, Trump’s lead dropped considerably after Harris grew to become the nominee when Biden dropped out.
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. (Getty Pictures)
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“Jump forward now to Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, what do we see? We see a completely different ballgame. We see Harris at 50%, we see Donald Trump at 48%,” he stated on Monday.
Enten additionally stated Tuesday that polling information on registered voters who stated they had been sure they had been going to vote has not modified for both Biden-Harris or Trump voters since Harris grew to become the nominee.
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“I will note this, Donald Trump is more popular today than he was on August 13 in either 2020 or 2016. So the bottom line is yes, Kamala Harris is doing better in the polls, but there’s a long way to go. The polls can shift. The almost certain to vote hasn‘t actually shifted, and Donald Trump is more popular than he was at either 2016 or 2020 at this point,” Enten concluded on Tuesday.
Trump narrowly gained Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in 2016 en path to his victory over Hillary Clinton, however Biden flipped them again within the blue column in 2020. The three states have all been “bellwether” states up to now 4 presidential elections, which means whoever gained them additionally gained the overall election.
