There’s an previous noticed in baseball which says that the “tie goes to the runner.”
If solely it had been that easy within the United States Senate.
There’s a very actual probability that the Senate may very well be tied at 50-50 within the 119th Congress which begins in January.
The Senate map in play subsequent week positively favors Republicans. Democrats at the moment maintain a 51-49 edge. There are 4 impartial senators who “caucus” with the Democrats, giving them operational management.
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It’s extensively believed that the occasion which controls the vice presidency mechanically secures management of the Senate. However that’s removed from computerized. It is sensible that the vp – who Constitutionally serves because the President of the Senate and will break ties – ought to successfully grant Senate management to his or her occasion. There have been two Senate ties in current historical past. One Senate tie was in 2001. The opposite one was in 2021-2023. However what unfolded in these cases is vital to know why awarding Senate management to the occasion of the vice presidency just isn’t etched on a stone pill. Furthermore, these circumstances might assist clarify why it is perhaps problematic to settle which occasion would possibly management the Senate in 2025.
Let’s first rewind.
There was a tie within the Senate in 1881. There’s truly some fascinating infighting and resignations of senators which explains the political machinations of that circumstance. There was additionally a tie in 1954 – and a number of switches within the majority/minority of senators between 1953-1955. That’s partially because of the loss of life of 9 senators over a brief time period.
There have been few cases in American historical past during which the Senate’s partisan composition has been evenly break up. Learn on to see what occurs when such a political crossroads is reached. (Celal Gunes/Anadolu Company by way of Getty Pictures)
There have been two ties within the early twenty first Century. However whereas one occasion or the opposite typically had extra members than the opposite facet, there was no such factor as a “Majority Leader” or “Minority Leader” till the early twentieth Century. Senators regarded the establishment as a physique of equals. So there was no motive to designate somebody as “in charge.” However that modified a bit of greater than 100 years in the past, launching the up to date Senate.
In late 2000, the Senate arrived at its first tie in a long time at 50-50. The ultimate race referred to as was a win by Sen. Maria Cantwell, D-Wash., over late Sen. Slade Gorton, R-Wash., in December. Needless to say 2000 was additionally the yr of the Florida election dispute involving the presidency. President George W. Bush topped Vice President Al Gore. Then-Senate Majority Chief Trent Lott, R-Miss., and then-Senate Minority Chief Tom Daschle, D-S.D., brokered a power-sharing association. The 50-50 break up, coupled with Vice President Dick Cheney, propelled Republicans into the bulk. Lott was in cost. However the deal afforded Daschle some ground powers not sometimes granted to the Minority Chief. Republicans would chair Senate committees. However membership by Democrats on every committee was degree with the GOP.
The pact additionally included a key rider: If one facet or the opposite truly garnered a proper majority at any time through the 107th Congress, then the deal was off and that occasion actually wielded a majority of the Senate.
The extent of comity between Lott and Daschle was instrumental to this settlement. And, all 100 senators agreed to the ability sharing association. One would possibly ask why everybody was on board? Lott and Daschle earned the boldness of their members. Plus, Republicans knew that Democrats would outright block ANYTHING in the event that they weren’t granted a ample voice. Meantime, Democrats agreed to the pact as a result of the choice meant they had been relegated to the minority. Underneath these circumstances they had been within the minority – however with an asterisk.
Lott’s reed-thin majority was short-lived. By springtime, late Sen. Jim Jeffords, I-Vt., dropped his membership with the GOP. Jeffords turned an impartial and elected to caucus with the Democrats. Jeffords’ maneuver immediately propelled Daschle to Majority Chief.
Management of the Senate for the 117th Congress wasn’t settled till early 2021. That’s when Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., defeated then-Sen. Kelly Loeffler, R-Ga., to make it a 50-50 tie. President Biden captured the Presidency. Republicans had been leery of being shut out just like the Democrats frightened in 2001. No idiot he, Senate Minority Chief Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., insisted on the identical power-sharing association hammered out between Lott and Daschle twenty years earlier. Democrats would function the bulk occasion due to Vice President Harris. Senate Majority Chief Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., can be on the helm. However the GOP would get pleasure from some fruits of energy within the minority, because of the 2001 deal.
On paper, partisan management of a 50-50 Senate is set by who the Vice President is: on this case, “Vice President J.D. Vance” presiding over an evenly-split chamber would tilt management to Republicans. “Vice President Tim Walz” would do the identical for Democrats. (AP/Matt Rourke)
So what occurs if there’s a tie in 2025?
The Senate is steeped in customized and custom. So if there’s a 50-50 impasse, there’s an excellent probability a “Vice President Tim Walz” means Democrats are in cost. The identical for the GOP if there’s a “Vice President JD Vance.” However we’re working in a special political ambiance as of late. Granted, the power-sharing preparations of 2001 and 2021 each emerged after disputed presidential elections. There was an curiosity in each cases to calm the waters in each of these episodes. However this time round? Who is aware of.
What else might muddy the waters? Democrats are pouring cash into Nebraska to spice up impartial Dan Osborn in his quest to defeat Sen. Deb Fischer, R-Neb. Osborn has made the race a lot nearer than anticipated. However Osborn additionally says he received’t caucus with both occasion. That would negate the probabilities of the tie. It additionally raises the query about the place the Senate would possibly place Osborn’s desk within the chamber and whether or not he would serve on any committees. Impartial senators have traditionally caucused with one facet or the opposite.
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Then there’s the query about simply how restive senators could also be after the election. McConnell is relinquishing his management position. The declared candidates to succeed him are Senate Minority Whip John Thune, R-S.D., former Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn, R-Tex., and Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla. It’s attainable different senators may very well be in play, too.
Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, has pushed the GOP management candidates to change inside convention guidelines and weaken the Republican chief. It’s removed from clear that there shall be an urge for food for bipartisanship and comity within the new Congress if there’s a Senate tie.
And, as in 2000 and 2020, what if there’s disagreement about whether or not Harris or former President Trump received the presidency? That would dictate whether or not senators are keen to award the “majority” to 1 facet or the opposite if it’s not sure if Walz or Vance is Vice President.
Senate management within the 119th Congress might also be decided by the fates of susceptible Republican Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Deb Fischer of Nebraska. (Reuters/Go Nakamura/AP/Stephanie Scarbrough)
And a footnote on the ability of the Vice President to interrupt ties: the Vice President just isn’t required to vote to interrupt a tie. If there’s a 50-50 vote on a invoice or an modification within the Senate, by rule, a tie loses. So if a vote is tied, the Vice President received’t vote if the administration or occasion needs the difficulty to go all the way down to defeat. There’s no motive to forged a “nay” vote to pile on with the loss.
Meaning the Vice President solely votes within the affirmative. So if a tie vote means the difficulty is failing – and the President and the Vice President need the difficulty to go within the different path – she or he votes “aye.” That makes it 51-50 – approving the modification or laws.
A reminder that the Vice President CANNOT vote if the vote is 49 yeas to 50 nays. That’s not a tie. Thus the Vice President isn’t afforded a vote to edge the tally to 50-50.
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So, regardless of the historic precedent of the vp dictating which occasion will management the Senate, the ability of the vp is definitely fairly restricted.
Which brings us again to our thesis: Relating to Senate management, nowhere is it written {that a} “tie goes to the runner.” Or on this case, the occasion of the vp. And that’s why the potential of a divided Senate in 2025 – amid a hyper unstable political local weather – might make it onerous to kind out which occasion runs the place.
