A brand new Trump administration, a brand new nation Trump desires to pressure to be the 51st state.
In 2019, Donald Trump tried to purchase Greenland from Denmark, an absurd supply the Danish authorities rejected. And whereas a state of Greenland lives on in Trump’s coronary heart—on Tuesday, he floated taking it by pressure—his eyes have drifted westward as nicely, to the Nice White North.
“Many people in Canada LOVE being the 51st State,” Trump wrote Monday on his Fact Social platform. “If Canada merged with the U.S., there would be no Tariffs, taxes would go way down, and they would be TOTALLY SECURE from the threat of the Russian and Chinese Ships that are constantly surrounding them. Together, what a great Nation it would be!!!”
However this wasn’t only a fleeting thought fired off from the john. In early December, Trump referred to the Canadian prime minister as “Governor Justin Trudeau of the Great State of Canada.” And on Christmas Day, Trump wrote his belated listing for Santa, saying he needed Canada, Greenland, and the Panama Canal below his tree. (Santa gave him the coal shoulder.)
After all, as Trudeau himself put it on Tuesday, “There isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell that Canada would become part of the United States.”
But when we deal with Trump significantly, what would the state of Canada appear to be?
Properly, for one factor, it will make it quite a bit more durable for Republicans to win management of Washington.
Wait, Canada has how many political events?
Canada has two main political events (the Conservative and Liberal events), two close-to-major events (the New Democratic Social gathering and the Bloc Québécois), and a scattering of others, such because the left-leaning Inexperienced Social gathering and the far-right Folks’s Social gathering of Canada. Solely 5 events—all of these listed above, besides the PPC—have illustration in Parliament.
These events don’t map completely onto the U.S.’s Democratic and Republican events, nonetheless. Whereas the Liberal Social gathering, New Democratic Social gathering, and Bloc Québécois are all on the left aspect of the political spectrum, the Conservative Social gathering would seem to many Individuals as if Maine Sen. Susan Collins, a Republican reasonable, had her personal celebration. (Canadians, when you’re studying this, I do know the comparability is imperfect. Don’t e mail me!)
Canada’s Conservatives prefer to reduce taxes, are extra skeptical of local weather change, and help different right-leaning insurance policies, however its 2023 platform additionally says it “will not support any legislation to regulate abortion” and can help a “universal, public health care system”—insurance policies that sound to those American ears as left-leaning. That being mentioned, the Conservatives do want some forms of well being privatization, and there are indicators the celebration is drifting to the correct.
Who would Canadians vote for?
Canadians who again the Conservative Social gathering probably wouldn’t be within the tank for America’s MAGAfied GOP.
Leger, a well-rated Canadian-owned pollster, often surveys Canadians about U.S. elections, and its knowledge reveals they strongly favor Democrats. Within the 2024 election, 64% would’ve voted for Harris and solely 21% for Trump. That may’ve been Harris’ finest end in any state (with the exception being the district of Washington, D.C.), simply beating out Vermont.
And amongst Canadians who again the Conservative Social gathering? They’re fairly break up: 42% would’ve gone for Harris and 45% for Trump.
That choice holds throughout elections too. Within the 2022 midterms, 42% of Canadians would’ve backed a Democratic candidate, whereas solely 14% would’ve backed a Republican, in line with Leger’s polling. (The “don’t know” choice got here in No. 2, at 33%.) And the 2020 election confirmed a fair deeper margin: 81% of Canadians would’ve voted for Joe Biden, in contrast with simply 19% for Trump.
The truth is, probably the most pro-GOP Canadians seem like those that pledge allegiance to the perimeter Folks’s Social gathering of Canada, based in 2018. The PPC’s platform consists of “deporting illegals,” combating “gender ideology,” and different customary Republican culture-war fare. Hell, the PPC’s web site even traffics in eye-rolling epithets like “radical woke activists.” So it is smart that 66% of PPC-backing Canadians would’ve gone for Trump in 2024, in line with Leger’s ballot. That mentioned, a stunning 22% would’ve backed Harris.
Altogether, the state of Canada would probably be among the many most Democratic within the union.
So what would that imply?
Tipping the scales
Canada has roughly 41.5 million individuals, in line with the latest authorities knowledge. That’s about 2 million greater than California, which might make the state of Canada by far the most important prize within the Electoral School.
How large? Electoral votes are derived from a sum of a state’s Home and Senate seats. Canada would pull in 48 Home seats, in line with 2020 U.S. census figures and the Census Bureau’s system for calculating reapportionment. Including within the two customary Senate seats means the state of Canada would have an enormous 50 electoral votes.
Worse for Republicans, these votes would disproportionately come from states that backed Trump in 2024. Twenty-eight votes would’ve come from Trump states and 20 from Harris states. And but, if the state of Canada had gone for Harris (as anticipated), it wouldn’t have been sufficient to shut the hole for her. Trump would’ve pulled in 284 electoral votes to Harris’ 256.
Wanting downballot, there are large beneficial properties for Democrats. If Democrats pulled in 64% of Canada’s anticipated 48 Home seats—i.e., the identical share that backed Harris within the Leger ballot—Democrats would pull in 31 seats to Republicans’ 17, a internet acquire of 14. That’s greater than sufficient to flip the chamber.
After all, the maths right here is much from excellent. For one factor, congressional map traces would play the most important function in figuring out which celebration picks up probably the most Home seats. And it’s as simple to think about Republicans narrowing that 31-17 hole as it’s to think about Canadian Democrats wringing much more seats out of the state through gerrymandering.
As for the Senate—nicely, Canada’s two senators, nearly certainly Democrats, wouldn’t put the celebration into the bulk. As an alternative of the present 53-47 Republican majority, we’d be 53-49. However that would imply Democrats want two fewer Republican defections to sink a invoice (if the White Home have been below Republican management).
Once more, there’s no likelihood within the foreseeable future that Canada will develop into the 51st state, however, fortunate for Democrats, there are much better choices to develop the union—and their caucus.
