British producers are retreating from the US as a key export market within the face of rising commerce uncertainty and punitive tariffs pushed by former President Donald Trump’s protectionist agenda.
For the primary time within the historical past of Make UK’s quarterly survey, the US has fallen out of the highest three areas the place UK producers anticipate to do enterprise. The stark shift in sentiment, revealed within the newest information from the commercial employers’ foyer group, displays deepening concern throughout the sector that American commerce insurance policies are damaging long-standing transatlantic industrial ties.
Make UK’s survey of its 20,000 company members, carried out in partnership with the accountancy agency BDO, discovered that 60 per cent of UK producers anticipate the Trump-era tariffs to hurt their enterprise. Simply 4 per cent of these surveyed stated they plan to spend money on or set up new operations within the US, signalling a steep decline in confidence.
The financial backdrop is already fragile. British producers are grappling with persistent inflationary pressures—most notably from hovering power prices—which Make UK says are pushing the nation to the brink of “de-industrialisation”.
In response, the group has slashed its forecast for UK manufacturing development, now predicting the sector will contract by 0.2 per cent in 2025, following a flat 2024. This can be a sharp reversal from earlier expectations of modest restoration. The group has additionally downgraded its 2026 forecast from 1 per cent development to a contraction of 0.5 per cent, following the announcement that exports to the US dropped by £2 billion in April—the biggest month-to-month decline since information started in 1997.
“Manufacturers are facing a gathering storm of huge uncertainty in one of their major markets, a skills crisis and eye-watering energy costs which are providing a harsh reality for many,” stated Seamus Nevin, chief economist at Make UK. “It’s absolutely essential that the forthcoming industrial strategy takes bold measures to bring down the cost of energy and takes equally radical action to ensure companies can access the people they need to take advantage of a more competitive landscape.”
Nevin warned that with out pressing motion, the UK faces “the serious prospect of accelerating into de-industrialisation”.
The US, as soon as a dependable and rising export vacation spot, has now slipped behind the Asia-Pacific and Center East areas when it comes to projected commerce engagement. The European Union stays the dominant buying and selling bloc for UK producers, however the shifting dynamics level to a broader reorientation in international technique for a lot of corporations.
It’s not simply British producers sounding the alarm. Make UK cited a parallel survey by the Nationwide Affiliation of Producers within the US, which confirmed American manufacturing confidence has plummeted to its lowest level for the reason that Covid-19 pandemic. Commerce coverage uncertainty was recognized as the one largest concern.
The findings will add to mounting strain on the Labour authorities, which has been in workplace for almost a yr, to lastly ship on its long-promised industrial technique. The enterprise neighborhood is asking for decisive motion to deal with spiralling power prices and structural labour shortages, each of that are stifling development and funding in a sector that continues to be important to the UK’s financial future.
Whereas the US stays a formidable international economic system, the indicators from Britain’s manufacturing base are clear: below the shadow of commerce wars, tariff obstacles, and rising uncertainty, confidence is ebbing—and exporters are trying elsewhere.
