Democrat Adam Grey received the U.S. Home contest in California’s thirteenth District on Tuesday night time, ousting GOP Rep. John Duarte in what is probably going the closest Home race in 2024.
Grey defeated Duarte by 187 votes as of Wednesday morning, although that margin shouldn’t be but licensed. A recount, if ordered, is not possible to overturn Grey’s election.
With Grey’s victory now referred to as, the ultimate breakdown of the 119th Congress might be 220 Republican seats to 215 Democratic ones, the smallest majority in additional than a century. The ultimate margin means Democrats netted one seat within the 2024 elections even supposing Donald Trump received.
Nonetheless, Republicans’ margin within the Home might be even slimmer than that for the primary few months of 2025. That’s as a result of Trump chosen two GOP Home members—Reps. Elise Stefanik of New York and Mike Waltz of Florida—for his administration. Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida additionally introduced he wouldn’t be taking the oath of workplace for the northern Florida Home seat he received, more likely to keep away from the discharge of a damning Home Ethics Committee report on his alleged intercourse trafficking.
That may go away Republicans with a 217-215 majority till particular elections could be held within the spring.
With that margin, Home Speaker Mike Johnson can’t lose a single vote if the whole Home is in attendance since dropping one Republican vote would finish in a 216-216 tie and the invoice would fail.
And that may show to be a near-impossible process for Johnson. The fractious Republican convention is full of right-wing agitators who like to vote “no” slightly than do the tough work of compromising and negotiating.
For instance, with a barely bigger margin within the present Congress, Johnson has needed to search Democratic votes to go authorities funding payments, giving Democrats negotiating energy.
In September, Johnson relied on Democrats to go a persevering with decision that funded the federal government by means of Dec. 20. In that vote, 82 Home Republicans voted to close down the federal government, a big quantity that will have doomed the laws had Democrats not voted in favor.
The slim margin may also make Trump’s agenda more durable to go. Republicans in aggressive Home seats might not need to vote for Trump’s far-right laws out of worry they’d lose their seats within the 2026 midterms.
For instance, in 2017, Trump’s tax-scam invoice—his signature legislative accomplishment in his first time period—handed. However 12 Republicans voted towards it, with one other three GOP lawmakers not voting. This time, Trump received’t have 15 votes to spare.
Get your popcorn. It’s going to be an unsightly, chaotic mess for Trump and his occasion.
