In an in any other case disappointing election 12 months, Democrats’ wins in state legislatures have been a shiny spot.
By Grace Panetta for The19th
As Democrats put together for Republicans to take over the White Home and Congress, they’re seeking to their wins in state legislatures as a shiny spot from November’s otherwise-disappointing election outcomes — wins they are saying would be the foundation for his or her anti-Trump “firewall.”
As President-elect Donald Trump retook the presidency and Republicans flipped management of the U.S. Senate, Democrats managed to carry off a crimson wave additional down the poll, mentioned Heather Williams, president of the Democratic Legislative Marketing campaign Committee (DLCC), state legislative Democrats’ marketing campaign arm.
Democrats suffered some defeats, dropping management of the Michigan state Home and falling in need of flipping aggressive chambers in Arizona. However in addition they broke Republican supermajorities within the battleground states of North Carolina and Wisconsin, held onto a slender majority within the Pennsylvania state Home, and defended majorities in blue states the place Trump gained important floor — performing higher than anticipated, given the nationwide outcomes.
“It wasn’t perfect. But when you think about what happened everywhere else on the ballot, I think that we landed in a place where we are in fighting form coming into the 2026 midterms,” Williams mentioned. “The battlegrounds remain quite familiar, and the Democratic firewall in this space is strong — and in fact, stronger than it was when Trump took office in 2017.”
In 2025, Democrats will maintain trifectas in 17 states — that means they management each legislative chambers and the governor’s workplace. They management one chamber and the governorship or each chambers with a Republican governor in 4 others, that means an estimated 160 million Individuals will stay in a state with some extent of Democratic governance. With Republicans controlling Washington, these legislatures would be the ones passing and enacting Democratic coverage priorities, probably together with protections for LGBTQ+ folks and people searching for abortions.
The Republican State Management Committee, state Republicans’ foremost marketing campaign arm, can also be celebrating its victories in flipping the Michigan Home, tying the Minnesota Home and increasing its supermajority in New Hampshire. Dee Duncan, the president of the RSLC, mentioned in a post-election memo that the group defied “an onslaught of spending” from Democrats and a “difficult political climate” to safe its wins. Republicans will go into 2025 holding 23 trifectas.
“Our strategy of investing early in targeted races as well as our commitment to improving the GOP’s standing in absentee and early voting paid dividends as voters made one thing clear: they want Republicans and their policies at the state level,” Duncan wrote. Republicans, he mentioned, “are well-positioned to advance conservative policies in the states that will benefit families for years to come.”
Democrats have been working to rebuild their bench on the state stage after debilitating losses within the 2010 and 2014 midterms beneath former President Barack Obama. They’re set to enter 2025 holding majorities in 39 of 99 chambers and have doubled the variety of trifectas they maintain since 2017, in keeping with the DLCC.
In a 12 months the place the voters as a complete shifted to the suitable and Trump gained important floor in blue states, Democrats’ state-level wins have been “really remarkable,” mentioned Lala Wu, co-founder and govt director of Sister District, a corporation centered on electing Democrats to state legislatures.
“This wasn’t a 2010 result in state legislatures across the country, which, given the baseline of this year, is unbelievable,” mentioned Simone Leiro, chief communications officer for The States Undertaking, a Democratic group that makes use of a data-driven strategy to put money into state legislative races. State legislative candidates outperforming the highest of the ticket, she mentioned, was “unprecedented.”
The end result in 2024 was the alternative sample of the 2020 elections when Democrats received a trifecta in Washington however misplaced floor in state legislatures.
Williams mentioned that this 12 months, the DLCC prioritized protection and incumbent safety over happening offense.
State legislative candidates are the closest to the voters and communities they characterize and may tailor messaging and technique accordingly. As a result of state legislative races obtain far much less consideration and are much less nationalized than the presidential race, Williams famous, many candidates have been in persuasion mode, working to persuade voters up till Election Day — a technique that paid off.
On the prime of the ticket, Trump received partly by turning out lower-propensity voters, together with many who had beforehand voted for President Joe Biden or hadn’t voted in any respect. However sufficient of these Trump voters didn’t vote in down-ballot races that his power didn’t translate into the identical stage of wins.
Wu mentioned that messaging round common points like reproductive rights additionally performed a task in serving to state legislative candidates defy the nationwide headwinds Democrats confronted over points just like the financial system and immigration. Whereas Trump tried to average his stance on abortion and defuse considerations he would signal a nationwide abortion ban into legislation, state legislative Democrats may level to unpopular abortion bans and restrictions Republican lawmakers on the state stage have handed and signed into legislation.
“This was part of our theory of the case,” Wu mentioned, “that if we could make the case to people that their state lawmakers are the ones who have so much control over reproductive rights and abortion, these issues that have been such winning issues for Democrats, then you could reduce roll-off down ballot.”
Democratic state lawmakers are additionally extra ready and prepared than they have been in 2017 to be “the front lines of defense” in opposition to incoming Republican governance on the federal stage, Leiro mentioned.
“There’s going to be a real federal regulatory vacuum,” Wu mentioned. “There’s real chaos at the federal level, and states have a real opportunity and really, an obligation to help fill in those gaps and step in to help regulate where the federal government may be stepping back.”
That work is already underway in states like Michigan, the place Democrats are scrambling to cross as a lot laws as they will earlier than they lose their legislative trifecta. Legislatures in deep-blue states like California and Illinois are additionally aiming to cross payments to “Trump-proof” their liberal states. Different lawmakers are adopting a wait-and-see strategy to Trump’s second time period whereas maintaining open minds to areas of potential collaboration with the incoming administration.
Electorally, Democrats wish to construct on their wins in 2025, beginning with a trio of January state legislative particular elections in Virginia. Governorships and state legislative seats will probably be up for election in New Jersey and Virginia. In each 2017 and 2021, Virginia’s off-cycle elections have been bellwethers that precisely captured altering political traits.
“We’ve proven if anything in 2024 that state legislative candidates need the seriousness and the investment in order to make their most compelling case to voters,” Leiro mentioned. “In a year without other federal elections on the ballot, that becomes even more critical. In Virginia, we could see the next Democratic trifecta, or we could see a really different story, depending on how serious the investment and the focus is.”
Blue states additionally made features in girls’s illustration, with Nevada and Colorado set to hitch New Mexico in states the place girls make up a majority of state lawmakers in 2025, in keeping with the Middle for American Ladies and Politics. Wu and Sister District need to see much more states attain parity within the coming years.
“We can do so, so much more,” Wu mentioned. “And we know that when women are in power, when there are more moms, teachers and nurses that bring diverse perspectives, we can get really incredible policy outcomes.”
For Williams, Democrats’ success on the state stage is a silver lining — and a pathway ahead for Democrats’ success — for the subsequent 4 years.
“Half of Americans are governed by a Democratic Party in their states, which means that the scale of our influence at this ballot level is really large,” Williams mentioned. “We’re not going to be able to get the kinds of things done federally that we all hope for, but that doesn’t mean that all hope is lost. We have real opportunities to move important policies forward in the states that have a real impact on people’s lives.”
