Labor strategist Steve Rosenthal says Kamala Harris fared higher with union voters than headlines recommend — and descriptions the labor motion’s path ahead.
By Kalena Thomhave, for Capital & Fundamental
Earlier than the election, a number of headlines recommended that union voters had deserted the Democratic Get together for Donald Trump. And although Trump did certainly win the presidential election on Nov. 5 with many rank-and-file union members’ assist, he didn’t win union voters total. What’s extra, Steve Rosenthal, who has labored as an electoral strategist within the labor motion for greater than 40 years, thinks the political coin might flip once more as quickly as 2026.
A former political director of the AFL-CIO, the place he helped revitalize labor’s political affect, Rosenthal focuses on participating union members and working-class voters. He’s presently president of the Organizing Group, a political consulting agency that works with labor unions to assist them get out the vote and win campaigns. The agency runs In Union, a voter mobilization program that reached 1.5 million largely white working-class voters this 12 months within the battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, in addition to Ohio. After Kamala Harris’ loss, Rosenthal believes the labor motion wants to start out making ready now for the anti-worker modifications which will come from a second Trump administration — and in addition for the following election.
This interview has been edited for brevity and readability.
Capital & Fundamental: I’d as effectively ask the query that everybody is asking concerning the election: What occurred?
Steve Rosenthal: For me, probably the most telling numbers got here out of the AP VoteCast ballot. Voters who rated the economic system wonderful or good — 36% of the voters — voted for Harris 82 to 17. Those that mentioned the economic system was not so good or poor — 63% of the voters — voted for Trump 69 to 29. For those who return to 2020, [the poll results were] nearly the precise reverse of that — 43% mentioned the economic system was wonderful or good, [and they] voted for Trump 81 to 18. The 57% of the voters who mentioned the economic system was not so good or poor voted for Biden 77 to 21.
As lots of people have identified, the economic system was the No. 1 challenge by far for voters. In the event that they thought that issues had been going OK, they voted for the incumbent [party in] Kamala Harris, and in the event that they thought that issues weren’t going effectively with the economic system, they voted for the change candidate, which was Trump. For lots of voters, financial points — forgive the expression — trump fascism, democracy and selection — the cornerstone of the Harris marketing campaign. I feel to some voters, [arguments on] these points had been much less credible as a result of they lived by way of 4 years of Trump. To me, that’s the high line abstract. I don’t consider there was any big realignment [or evidence of] a long-term conservative shift.
Once I was the political director on the AFL-CIO from 1996 to 2002, a part of my rap was that the one white working-class voters who had been voting for Democrats had been in unions. It was true then, and it’s largely true at the moment. And the union vote has really gotten a little bit worse. There has not been sufficient consideration over time to the decline within the variety of union members and, subsequently, union voters, and what that has meant for Democrats. I’m completely satisfied to see individuals speaking concerning the Democrats needing to change into the occasion of working individuals once more.
“It’s not that the party doesn’t stand for workers anymore; it’s that the party leadership is not getting in the trenches with workers anymore.”
On the union vote, there was lots of media dialogue about how union members are migrating to Trump regardless of the Biden administration doing a lot for unions.
First off, union members voted for Harris in fairly sturdy numbers. Throughout the three blue wall states, [there was a] vital efficiency by union members.
In Pennsylvania, union members made up 18% of the voters. So, nearly one out of 5 votes forged got here from union households, and so they voted 52 to 47 for Harris, which is best than the Biden vote was in 2020, [when] Biden misplaced union households to Trump 49 to 50 in Pennsylvania. So, she really did higher. In Wisconsin, Kamala Harris gained union voters 53 to 46 — higher than Clinton did in 2016 and never fairly nearly as good as Biden did in 2020, however nonetheless a nine-point margin amongst union voters within the state. In Michigan, Harris gained [union voters] 55 to 44 — not fairly nearly as good as Biden did in 2020, however a lot better than Clinton in 2016.
Trump has eroded the union vote a little bit bit, however not in substantial numbers. The media rush to judgment earlier than the election primarily based on some polls suggesting that union members had deserted the Democrats, it’s simply improper.
What are your ideas on unions just like the Teamsters not endorsing Harris?
The Teamsters, as was effectively reported, stayed impartial. So did the firefighters. However there have been 50 unions that supported Kamala Harris.
The Teamsters launched a ballot that mentioned that [nearly] 60% of their members had been supporting Trump, and [indicated] that’s why they determined to remain impartial. I’ve seen lots of union member polls over the greater than 40 years I’ve been doing this work. Unions would possibly begin off with their members behind 10, 15, or 20 factors. However then you definitely put your program into gear and talk along with your members — on this case, for instance, level out that Trump helps right-to-work and that Trump ran one of the crucial vehemently anti-union administrations within the historical past of the nation. After which distinction that with Harris’ document and the truth that Harris forged the deciding vote on the laws that saved the pensions for a whole bunch of hundreds of union members, together with Teamsters.
It was inexcusable that the union didn’t take the chance to speak to their members and clarify to them what was at stake on this election. As a result of if that they had carried out that, they’d have moved these numbers. No union chief might have a look at these two candidates and with any diploma of honesty recommend that certainly one of them wouldn’t be higher for working individuals.
Do you’ve gotten ideas on the best way to reconcile how the economic system is doing versus how individuals really feel the economic system is doing? It appears that evidently individuals’s private experiences don’t essentially match up with what the headlines say concerning the economic system.
I feel that’s a part of why the Harris marketing campaign tread calmly on selling a number of the information on how inflation was down, as a result of individuals weren’t feeling that.
There’s a component there concerning the message and the messenger. It’s not that the occasion doesn’t stand for staff anymore; it’s that the occasion management just isn’t getting within the trenches with staff anymore. Their accomplishments are partially paid brief shrift as a result of there’s an enormous diploma of cynicism total about each events and politics on the whole. Working a billion {dollars} in TV advertisements aimed toward working individuals to attempt to say to them “We’re with you” — on the heels of 30 years of NAFTA and different commerce offers and standing [with] firms, and never getting within the trenches with staff?
There’s a distinction between what the occasion is doing and preventing for and what individuals really feel and see and perceive.
Biden was, by all accounts, probably the most pro-union president in our lifetimes. It have to be extremely insulting to President Biden, Vice President Harris [and others in the administration], who’ve carried out a lot over the previous couple of years for unions and staff, to be listening to that the occasion has deserted them.
“Every four years the labor movement has the potential to play an outsized role in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.”
You mentioned that Democrats have to be doing the work within the trenches with staff. What does that seem like?
I feel it’s strolling picket traces. I feel it’s displaying up at union halls. I feel it’s gathering teams of working individuals collectively and sitting with them and listening to them — doing city corridor conferences round your district or state and listening to what individuals need to say. It means standing united with working individuals and letting them see who’s actually on their aspect.
Over the following couple of years, it’s going to be standing sturdy in opposition to what’s going to be a vicious assault on a variety of employee’s rights. There are going to be assaults on [the Occupational Safety and Health Administration], extra time pay, the Nationwide Labor Relations Board, funding the Truthful Labor Requirements Act, and federal staff’ unions.
What has been your method to mobilizing union and working-class voters?
With our voter engagement program, In Union, we offer voters with a 12 months of knowledge — we don’t simply begin speaking to them across the election. We give them recommendations on their households saving cash, we offer them with details about unions on the entrance traces, we give them methods to carry politicians accountable and to struggle again. After which we regularly get into speaking concerning the election itself. We by no means make endorsements, however we offer individuals with good, sound info and well-documented citations.
How do you see that work evolving over the following few years?
As loopy because it sounds, it’s not too quickly to start out [work for] 2026 within the Blue Wall states, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. In two of the states there shall be open governors’ races, and [Gov. Josh] Shapiro shall be up for reelection in Pennsylvania. After which — it sounds foolish for me to speak about 2028, however each 4 years the labor motion has the potential to play an outsized position in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
So what we have to do just isn’t wait till October 2026 or September 2028 and begin speaking with union members [about] defending staff’ rights. Individuals wish to be engaged. Union members will willingly make telephone calls. They’ll speak to their elected officers. They are going to go to city corridor conferences. They’re extra small-d democratic than most voters as a result of they expertise [democracy] of their unions [when] they elect native union officers and vote on contracts.
We have to begin now. There’s an excessive amount of at stake for working individuals with this incoming administration to not begin participating individuals in January.
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