There are an estimated 11-14 million undocumented immigrants within the nation, all of which Trump has promised to deport. There are tens of millions extra with short-term protected standing and different mechanisms permitting them to remain legally, who Trump has additionally promised to deport. (Among the many first targets have been Cubans and Venezuelans—two reliably Republican teams.)
As famous earlier than, Trump’s guarantees are obviously unrealistic, main Tom Homan, his border czar, to already try to stroll them again. The fact is that Immigration and Customs Enforcement lacks the personnel to make any severe dent in that quantity absent vital native assist, and the a whole bunch of billions it will take to employees up are a whole bunch of billions that merely don’t exist in any lifelike funds, particularly with the GOP’s razor-thin congressional majorities.
Trump’s first week deportation numbers bear that out.
ICE has began bragging about their every day arrest numbers on X.
January 26: 956
January 25: 286
January 24: 593
January 23: 538
That’s a median of slightly below 600 a day. There are 1,452 days left within the Trump presidency, so at that price, assuming all these arrests flip into deportations (many gained’t), he would handle to deport 861,629 immigrants.
Humorous sufficient, that may be a decrease quantity than former President Joe Biden managed to deport. In 2024, ICE deported 271,484 immigrants, or round 744 per day.
Think about if Biden was an asshole and had ICE put up every day social media updates on the variety of deportations. Would he get credit score for it? Would Republicans be like, “oooh, he’s doing a great job!”
After all not, however Trump makes a giant present of 600 arrests and the MAGA deplorables are ecstatic. Right here is Fox Information breathlessly reporting that “deportation flights have begun” as Trump sends a “strong and clear message,” as if it’s some new never-before-seen initiative.
ICE’s downside is certainly one of scale. ICE has solely 6,000 brokers, and U.S. Border Patrol solely has 20,000, however 17,000 of them patrol the border. As Trump’s former Border Patrol commissioner Mark Morgan stated in an interview with Stateline, “It’s not going to be successful, as long as we have sanctuary cities and states that refuse to allow local and state police departments to work with ICE.”
Trump could be greatest served through the use of his associates in Texas, Florida, and Nebraska to go after undocumented immigrants in these states, however for now he appears hell-bent on punishing blue cities and states like Newark, New Jersey, the place an ICE raid picked up a U.S. citizen who was additionally a veteran. That epic screwup acquired all the eye, however the contours of that raid exhibit the challenges federal authorities face.
Newark is a sanctuary metropolis, and the state of New Jersey itself refuses to work with federal authorities on immigration issues. So ICE needed to go in with out the help of native regulation enforcement. In accordance to stories, a few dozen brokers raided a fish market, they usually managed to select up simply three immigrants and the veteran who failed to supply identification. You want proportionately extra regulation enforcement brokers than the folks you hope to nab. At that price, it’s apparent why ICE would have to be dramatically expanded to maneuver past 1 million deportations, a lot much less the tens of millions (plural) Trump has promised.
Trump himself is upset at that tempo, in accordance with no less than one new report.
“U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement officials have been directed by Trump officials to aggressively ramp up the number of people they arrest, from a few hundred per day to at least 1,200 to 1,500, because the president has been disappointed with the results of his mass deportation campaign so far, according to four people with knowledge of the briefings,” reported The Washington Submit.
The one approach to do this with out massively growing the scale of ICE (which needs to be budgeted and employed) is to deal with crimson state immigrants, decimating native economies and elevating meals costs all over the place.
Good luck with that, Donnie.