In abstract
In November 2024, California voters made a small shift to the appropriate. What half did younger voters play in it? Specialists say causes may vary from fewer younger folks turning out to vote to modifications in ideology.
In November 2024, when President Donald Trump received 38.3% of the vote in California, this was 4 share factors greater than he received in 2020. It was a small shift to the appropriate, owing to many elements amongst subgroups of voters. However what half did younger voters play in it?
In accordance with nationwide exit polls, Trump made positive aspects throughout the youth vote — typically categorized as voters ages 18-29 — in 2024 in comparison with 2020. Specialists say causes for this shift, each nationally and right here in California, may vary from fewer younger folks turning out to vote to modifications in ideology.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris received California in her 2024 presidential bid by over 3 million votes. Nevertheless, Trump elevated his share of votes in 45 out of 58 California counties from 2020 to 2024, in line with a CalMatters evaluation. Imperial, Merced and Sutter counties noticed a number of the greatest positive aspects.
Nationally, 7% of youth voters who voted for Former President Joe Biden in 2020 switched to vote for Trump in 2024, in line with impartial analysis performed by The Middle for Data and Analysis on Civic Studying and Engagement, a nonpartisan analysis group based mostly at Tufts College in Boston.
Regardless of this nationwide shift, younger Californians are extra prone to determine as Democrats and liberals. Eric McGhee, a senior fellow on the Public Coverage Institute of California, defined that rightward shifts within the state don’t essentially point out the identical for the youth vote.
“The people who are turning out to vote might be different than the broader population of people from that demographic, or even than the people who typically vote in that demographic,” McGhee mentioned.
Some might select to not vote altogether. The Tufts College analysis group lately estimated that the nationwide 2024 youth voter turnout was 42%, in comparison with 52% to 55% in 2020.
Adam Tallabas, a 26-year-old graduate of Cal State Lengthy Seashore and present chair of Orange County Younger Democrats, met younger residents in his neighborhood who deliberate on not voting on this election. When chatting with Orange County residents below the age of 35, Tallabas discovered that monetary strains like paying lease and scholar mortgage debt have been on the coronary heart of their apathy towards voting.
“People, they have so much going on in their household that it’s hard for them to focus on what’s going on outside of that household,” he mentioned.
In 2020, 53.5% of Orange County voters selected Biden in comparison with 44.4% who selected Trump. That margin shrunk in 2024 when 49.7% of voters selected Harris in comparison with 47.1% who selected Trump. The county additionally noticed 129,173 fewer votes total in 2024 than in 2020, roughly an 8.35% lower in turnout price.
“A big part of why young people don’t vote is because they’re less rooted to their communities. They’re not homeowners by and large … They haven’t reached that stage of life where they feel quite as, kind of, connected to things,” mentioned McGhee, who has performed analysis on the nonpartisan assume tank for over 17 years.
Younger Californians of all political events are a lot much less prone to be owners than these above the age of 34, in line with a Public Coverage Institute of California statewide survey.
Primarily based on a CNN nationwide exit ballotHarris received over younger voters, with 54% of voters ages 18-29 voting for her to Trump’s 43%; nonetheless, the margin between the 2 candidates is way smaller than it was between Biden and Trump. CNN’s 2020 exit ballot confirmed Biden profitable 60% of the youth vote whereas Trump received solely 36%, a lot lower than he received this previous election.
Whereas nationwide exit polls reveal some details about the youth vote in 2024, there have been no exit polls for California and neither the state nor the federal authorities launch age-specific voting knowledge. This, McGhee defined, makes it tough to research younger voters in California however opinion polling and interviews assist shed some gentle on attitudes inside this demographic.
Private finance points, corresponding to housing and inflation, have been high points for younger individuals who did vote, The Brookings Establishment discovered, with some seeing Trump as the answer.
Samantha Dalby, a 29-year-old monetary advisor from Newport Seashore, famous her perception that “Trump ran the country similar to a business.” This is among the causes she and lots of her friends in Newport’s monetary house are excited in regards to the incoming Trump administration, particularly the conservative promise of “corporate tax cuts, which are important for a lot of business owners.”
“I noticed that a lot of young men felt like they were only treated as allies of women, rather than being represented themselves.”
Sunjay Muralitharan, nationwide vice chairman of School Democrats of America
Whereas exit polls use age teams as one strategy to present voting patterns, Alice Siu, affiliate director for the Stanford Deliberative Democracy Lab, emphasizes being cautious about categorizing the “youth vote” as one demographic. She famous that younger voters maintain various traits corresponding to geography, id and funds, to not point out the wide selection of experiences throughout the age vary of 18-29.
Get together votes diverse amongst numerous racial and ethnic teams of younger voters as effectively, in line with the Tufts College analysis group’s evaluation of an AP VoteCast Survey. Trump appeared to win amongst younger, white voters whereas Harris received amongst Black, Latino and Asian younger voters. But the CNN exit ballot nonetheless confirmed 46% of Latino respondents voted for Trump in 2024, a 14 share level enhance from 2020.
One other method through which the youth vote differed was by gender, with Trump profitable massive with younger males, receiving 56% of their vote nationally whereas 58% of younger ladies voted for Harris.
Sunjay Muralitharan, nationwide vice chairman of School Democrats of America and a 20-year-old scholar at UC San Diego, mentioned the lack to succeed in younger males was one of many Democratic Get together’s failures this previous election.
“When I spoke to more people and took my own crack at kind of figuring out what went wrong, I noticed that a lot of young men felt like they were only treated as allies of women, rather than being represented themselves,” Muralitharan mentioned. “I think this was really disheartening because a lot of the policies that we pushed for also benefit young men.”
Ethan Petty, a 26-year-old man dwelling in Bakersfield — situated in a county that additionally noticed a rightward shift — expressed his assist for Harris. He famous that whereas he didn’t really feel robust pleasure for Harris as a candidate, he discovered her to be favorable to Trump, noting worries about abortion and LGBTQ+ rights below a Trump administration.
“I’m pretty scared about what, you know, Donald Trump and the fully Republican-controlled government and Supreme Court will do to maybe change the laws of the land in the future,” he mentioned. “I’m just kind of fearful of the future at the moment.”
Trump’s decide for vice chairman, J.D. Vance, excited some younger Republican voters, in line with Cynthia Kaui, 30, vice chair of the California Younger Republican Federation. At simply 40 years previous, Vance would be the nation’s third-youngest vice chairman.
“The fact that there is some level of representation, you know, in the highest level of government that one can achieve in politics, that was something that, you know, our membership was very excited about,” Kaui mentioned.
Some younger voters, like Antonia Lopez, have been dissatisfied with all their decisions on the polls. The 22-year-old resident of San Bernardino expressed her disapproval of the Democratic social gathering’s marketing campaign and her view that it was “encouraging right-wing sentiment” by means of strikes corresponding to highlighting an endorsement from distinguished Republican Liz Cheney.
Lopez listed the Israel-Hamas battle, bodily autonomy, freedom of the press, disseminating misinformation, and well being care as a few of her high points. Although Lopez forged a vote for Harris, she didn’t really feel represented by any candidate within the race and is “pessimistic” in regards to the presidency and insurance policies to return.
“Especially as I’m getting older and these issues become more daunting, I feel like the issues that I care about are being abandoned,” she mentioned.
