What’s that outdated definition of madness—doing the identical factor over and over and anticipating a special end result?
Enter Kentucky.
Again in 2018, as then-President Donald Trump did his common bullying act with Europe, the European Union hit again in a sensible and focused method, slapping retaliatory sanctions in opposition to Trump-supporting industries (e.g., coal, agriculture) and states (e.g., Texas, Florida, Kentucky).
The tariffs price these industries dearly, but voters in these states seemingly determined that free and unfettered commerce with our allies was too massive a worth to pay for transgender individuals having rights or the worth of eggs being too excessive, in order that they voted for extra of that ache final November.
And now within the highlight is Kentucky’s whiskey business. Right here’s WCPO, an ABC affiliate out of close by Cincinnati, Ohio:
The risk stems from actions taken by the primary Trump Administration in 2018, when the U.S. first slapped 25% and 10% tariffs on European metal and aluminum imports, respectively. European Union officers then imposed a 25% retaliatory tariff on American whiskey exports, which it suspended in 2022.
“We saw tens—if not hundreds—of millions of millions of dollars of impact on exports that the bourbon industry is just recovering from,” Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear mentioned throughout a Jan. 16 press convention. “A state, again, that voted for Trump by 30 points will get hit incredibly hard.”
Eric Gregory, the president of the Kentucky Distillers’ Affiliation, an business group, instructed WCPO that the 2018 tariffs price his business—and therefore the state—upwards of roughly $580 million, which is a wide ranging quantity. These EU tariffs had been 25%. The brand new tariffs, set to take impact on March 31 if no deal is reached between the U.S. and EU, can be double that: 50%. Kentucky distillers export over 95% of the world’s bourbon merchandise, with the EU being their largest export market, based on Gregory.
Need to guess the next-biggest market? Mexico and Canada—Trump’s latest foes.
Bourbon is a $9 billion business, based on the Kentucky Distillers’ Group. The group says the native business employs over 23,100 individuals and generates $358 million in tax income. In different phrases, these distillers and Kentucky could possibly be in for a world of harm.
“We’re trying to sound the alarms as much as possible that these are good, paying American jobs that are in jeopardy,” Gregory instructed WCPO. “We have been caught up in trade wars that have nothing to do with whiskey.”
Besides it has all the pieces to do with Trump’s commerce wars. Trump began a battle that has already generated a substantial amount of collateral harm. The neatest commerce companions will do what the EU did—retaliate in opposition to his personal supporters. And provided that Trump’s reply to all the pieces proper now’s “TARIFFS,” count on the ache to go deep.
What’s worse for these guys, home consumption of alcohol is down.
“The brand new Era Z (is not) ingesting as a lot. You’ve got acquired all the pieces from weight reduction medicine that deter the consequences of alcohol to produce chain points,” Gregory said. “Once you have a look at slicing off a serious provide market just like the EU with all this bourbon sitting right here, that is a recipe for hassle.”
“We’d like President Trump’s assist to determine a means to assist us get out of this mess that we have been ensnared in,” he added.
After all, Trump would not care. Kentucky may’ve completed one thing about it on Election Day, however they opted for this—and by a large margin. Because the state that additionally foisted Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell on us (in addition to Sen. Rand Paul)—if anybody deserves what’s coming, it might simply be Kentucky.
The hope is now that as international locations weigh retaliatory tariffs, they take the EU’s lead and focus their retaliations on pink states and red-leaning industries as a lot as potential.
The subsequent 4 years will suck, however something that directs the ache on the proper individuals makes it a little bit extra bearable.
