London’s iconic black cabs might all however vanish by 2040, warn long-serving cabbies who’ve seen their ranks skinny by a 3rd prior to now decade.
On the coronary heart of the disaster are mounting pressures to modify to electrical autos, an ageing workforce reluctant to put money into dear new taxis, and city-wide “anti-car” measures that drivers say make it more durable than ever to serve passengers swiftly.
The size of the downturn in driver numbers is putting: from a document excessive of 25,538 in 2014, figures from November 2024 present solely 16,965 now stay—a 33.6 per cent fall. Whereas demand for black cabs has stayed robust, the pool of obtainable autos and drivers is steadily draining, with many nearing retirement and fewer newcomers taking the plunge.
Steve McNamara, head of the Licensed Taxi Driver’s Affiliation, believes cabbies are being taken as a right. He claims {that a} proliferation of low site visitors neighbourhoods, together with a maze of cycle lanes and 20mph restrictions, has turned London into a spot “virtually impossible” to navigate. “They’ve built a road network for white middle-class men using cycle lanes to the detriment of the majority of Londoners,” he says. “It’s incredibly stressful and a lot of people think, ‘I can’t do this anymore.’”
For drivers who stay on the highway, earnings have been buoyant. Fewer taxis in circulation means black cabs now management a much bigger slice of the market, enabling some drivers to earn as a lot as £100,000 a 12 months. Even so, Transport for London (TfL) is contemplating elevating mounted fares by an additional 7.5 per cent in 2025, on high of current hikes totalling greater than 15 per cent since 2022.
Satirically, these rising fares haven’t dampened passenger demand. But cabbie Tom Hutley worries about how rising costs, coupled with re-routed journeys as a result of highway restrictions, will have an effect on buyer perceptions. “If it takes twice as long and costs £15 instead of £10, people might choose a different option next time,” he warns.
The ever-growing variety of personal rent autos, together with Uber, as soon as threatened to undercut black cabs with low-cost fares. Nonetheless, a mixture of surge pricing and inflationary pressures has made black cabs extra aggressive. “We’re no longer necessarily more expensive than Uber,” McNamara says. For a lot of passengers, a metered taxi with a regulated tariff now feels no totally different in value.
Regardless of the environmental upsides, the shift to electrical taxis poses a monetary barrier for a lot of drivers. A brand new electrical black cab can price as much as £80,000, or £100,000 on finance. Round 60 per cent of London’s black cabs at the moment are zero-emission autos, however part-time drivers and people nearing retirement are reluctant to take a position so closely. Diesel taxis have to be taken off the highway at 12 years previous underneath TfL’s inexperienced insurance policies, which means older autos with loads of life left can now not function.
“I’m in my 60s and don’t plan on shelling out £80,000,” one veteran cabbie explains. “I haven’t got an issue with electric, but I won’t be doing that.” Earlier grants of as much as £10,000 to scrap older diesel taxis have ended, leaving drivers with fewer incentives to improve.
The Information—London’s famed requirement to memorise 25,000 streets—nonetheless attracts newcomers, but not sufficient to offset the mass of drivers reaching retirement. TfL information exhibits 62 per cent of present cabbies are over 53, with restricted curiosity amongst youthful generations to exchange them.
Neil Garratt of the London Meeting says town’s black cabs are “at a crossroads” and has urged the Mayor to behave shortly: “Black cabs are a vital means of transport, and it’s within the Mayor’s powers to secure their future.”
TfL’s Graham Robinson provides {that a} revised motion plan is in progress to help “hard-working black cab drivers”. Funding, he says, has helped many swap to greener autos, together with bettering town’s taxi ranks and widening entry to bus lanes. However for a lot of cabbies, these measures is likely to be too little, too late to save lots of an trade on the brink.
