Democrats at present have a 51-49 majority in america Senate, which means that Republicans want only a two-seat pickup to retake the chamber in a yr wherein the terrain closely favors them.
Democrats have a assured loss in West Virginia, the place Sen. Joe Manchin, an impartial who caucuses with Democrats, has known as it quits. There’s little high-quality polling in Montana’s Senate race, however 538’s polling common exhibits Democratic incumbent Jon Tester down practically 4 proportion factors.
As such, Democrats want to select up not less than one Republican-held seat to carry a 50-50 majority in a possible Kamala Harris administration. And when the 2 greatest Democratic alternatives are Florida and Texas, issues look darkish.
However there could possibly be a 3rd choice, and one which nobody noticed coming.
Nebraska.
Donald Trump received the deep-red Cornhusker State by 19 factors in 2020, however the Senate race is unusual this cycle. There is no such thing as a Democrat within the race. As an alternative, Sen. Deb Fischer is going through impartial Dan Osborn, a union chief in Omaha. And the polling has been weird.
A new ballot by SurveyUSA for Osborn’s marketing campaign offers him a slim 1-point lead over Fischer. That’s barely up from a month in the past, when a SurveyUSA ballot for the election web site Cut up Ticket gave Fischer a 1-point lead. Each outcomes are effectively inside the polls’ margins of error, however the truth that the race is remotely shut is surprising, to say the least.
SurveyUSA’s polls aren’t the one ones that present a detailed race, both. Whereas a July ballot from Torchlight Methods for Fischer’s marketing campaign gave her a 26-point lead, all 4 of the polls since then present the candidates in principally a statistical tie. Three of the polls had been funded by Osborn or a PAC that helps him—however every ballot is from a agency that 538 lists as among the many prime 15 greatest pollsters.
Much more odd, although? All 4 latest polls present Fischer’s assist between 39% and 44%. And provided that Osborn is getting comparable numbers, it means there’s a unusually great amount of undecided voters on this race.
So what the heck is occurring?
Put a “D” subsequent to Osborn’s identify, and all of the polling would absolutely appear to be Fischer’s inner ballot. However Osborn is operating as an labor-focused impartial and hasn’t clarified which get together he’d caucus with, if elected.
His declare to native fame is his tireless union advocacy work.
“To ensure stability for his family, Dan began work as an industrial mechanic at the Kellogg’s plant in Omaha in 2004,” reads his marketing campaign web site bio. “Dan rose to the presidency of his union, BCTGM 50G. He led the successful 2021 Kellogg’s strike in Omaha, defeating efforts to slash benefits and guaranteeing the factory remain open through 2026.” (Sadly, the plant is slated to shut that yr.)
Osborn’s working-class roots and message suggests he leans to the left, at the same time as his rugged persona runs counter to stereotypes. The New York Instances profiled the race in February:
Mr. Osborn, who stated he was a Democrat till 2016, desires to run on a slim platform with what he hopes is extraordinarily broad attraction: legalize marijuana (not less than for medical use), increase the minimal wage nationally, safe abortion rights, defend gun rights and develop legal guidelines to facilitate union organizing. He condemns the inflation of the Biden period, however blames company greed and value gouging. He speaks of the U.S. border in distinctly Republican methods.
Given the progressive motion’s disastrous mishandling of the immigration challenge, Osborn’s tough-on-immigration message has the broadest attraction (and never simply in purple states like Nebraska). And even then, he says as soon as the borders are closed, he desires Congress to have a look at methods of legalizing some undocumented immigrants already within the nation. His message isn’t considered one of cruelty and division. And the remainder of that paragraph above? Apart from gun rights, it seems like normal Democratic fare.
The New York Instances’ article additionally states that, on the time, Osborn wished to lift $2 million to wage a aggressive race on this comparatively low-cost state. And by the top of June, he’d raised $1.6 million. (Newer FEC information isn’t obtainable but.) Nonetheless, as of the identical reporting deadline, Fischer had raised a much more sturdy $6.3 million. On the similar time, although, outdoors spending has thus far benefitted Osborn.
However this race received’t be received on cash alone.
Writing up its ballot with SurveyUSA, Cut up Ticket notes that whereas Fischer’s approval scores are middling, it doesn’t clarify the closeness of the race.
[Osborn’s] overperformance doesn’t appear to be it is because of his personal favorability ranking (which stands at 34% favorable and 24% unfavorable), as 42% of voters merely haven’t heard something about him. It additionally doesn’t appear to be it’s wholly attributable to Deb Fischer’s scores—at 42% favorable and 41% unfavorable, her ranking continues to be web optimistic, and it’s really higher than [fellow Nebraska Sen.] Pete Ricketts’ 44% favorable and 45% unfavorable picture. However Ricketts leads by 17 [in this year’s special election race], whereas Fischer leads by simply 1, with the one actual distinction between their races being their opponents’ get together identification.
Within the latest SurveyUSA ballot for Osborn’s marketing campaign, Fischer’s favorability had modified to 48% favorable and 42% unfavorable, however Osborne’s? It was 48% favorable to twenty-eight% unfavorable, which implies he’s gone from a 10-point web favorability to a 20-point web favorability. That’s the signal of a great marketing campaign.
Osborn’s enhancing favorability is regardless of a fierce effort by Fischer and her allies to slap that “D” label on Osborn. This advert from a Republican tremendous PAC calls him “Democrat Dan” and claims, “He’s really just another liberal Democrat.” However for now, that message doesn’t appear to be seeping into the citizens.
Additionally related to this Senate race is that Harris leads Trump 47% to 42% within the state’s 2nd Congressional District, based on SurveyUSA’s ballot for Cut up Ticket. As you would possibly keep in mind, Nebraska splits its electoral votes, with two going to the statewide winner and one to the winner of every of its three districts. A latest Republican try to vary this rule—and thereby forestall Harris from grabbing that one probably essential electoral vote—appears to have been defeated simply this week.
And that might have vital implications for the Senate race. Harris’ marketing campaign has constructed a get-out-the-vote operation to spice up the district’s Democratic turnout—turnout that can seemingly vastly profit Osborn. Presumably, it will permit his marketing campaign to focus extra on making inroads in rural Nebraska. The extra it will possibly reduce into Fischer’s margins in farm nation, the higher for Osborn.
And if that weren’t sufficient, abortion can be on the poll in Nebraska this November—twice. Two competing abortion-related poll measures will face a vote: One would legalize the process till fetal viability (which was the usual set by Roe v. Wade, earlier than it was overturned in 2022), whereas the opposite measure would ban most abortions after the primary trimester and permit for legislators to go a complete ban sooner or later. The measure that receives essentially the most votes in favor would develop into legislation.
The SurveyUSA ballot for Cut up Ticket exhibits each measures with web assist, although the anti-abortion measure has greater than the abortion-rights one, suggesting that even when each handed, the restrictive legislation can be the one to develop into legislation. On the similar time, the abortion-right’s measure has a bigger undecided (or confused?) share, opening up the likelihood that it positive factors from the place it’s. (The opposite SurveyUSA ballot, for Osborn’s marketing campaign, didn’t ask about abortion.)
Regardless, the abortion-rights measure seems extra common than not, with “yes” main “no” by 10 factors. In different phrases, Republicans highlighting Osborn’s pro-abortion-rights stance would possibly assist him—or not less than not harm him like they assume it’ll. They usually appear to concentrate on that, accusing him of supporting abortion “until birth” within the aforementioned advert. In the meantime, Fischer desires to ban abortion with out exceptions for rape or incest.
The large caveat is that in a partisan state, undecided voters usually tend to transfer to the dominant get together than the challenger. So odds are higher that not that Fischer in the end will get to 50% first.
However thus far, Osborn is defying gravity.
