North Dakota hardly ever makes a lot in the best way of nationwide information, however Democratic Senate nominee Katrina Christiansen is intent on altering that. If there’s a darkish horse within the race for Democrats to maintain their Senate majority, it might be her.
Christiansen is working in opposition to GOP incumbent Kevin Cramer. It’s North Dakota, so knowledge out of the state is skinny. The one unbiased ballot performed in 538’s record was accomplished by Emerson School final October, which confirmed a considerable lead for Cramer. But it surely’s now 10 months later and the political world has shifted.
Christiansen’s marketing campaign launched inner polling from established agency Lake Analysis Companions that exhibits “After limited early paid communications, Christiansen is already making significant gains against Republican Senator Kevin Cramer.”
“Though this will be a challenge, with aggressive communications and outside help, Christiansen has a real opportunity to make this a competitive race and secure a win against Cramer,” the polling memo says.
The Democrat’s message is interesting, Lake discovered, however one other key issue is that Cramer’s help is delicate.
The polling discovered “60% of voters say they either would consider someone else (21%), would vote to replace Cramer (31%), or are not sure (eight percent).” Total, he has only a 50% approval score on this deep pink state (Donald Trump obtained 65% of the vote in 2020) and 58% of unbiased voters have an unfavorable opinion of him (as do 83% of the state’s Democrats). Simply 50% of voters assume he’s doing an excellent job as senator.
His help is delicate, Christiansen’s message is interesting, and what had been a 25-point race in Lake’s earlier polling in February has change into a 13-point race: Cramer sits at simply 51%, with Christiansen at 38%. She’s successful independents 46% to 39%. Christiansen’s title ID has improved by 30% since February, and her favorability score improved to 41% favorable versus 18% unfavorable.
She additionally raised extra money than Cramer within the final quarter: $690,000, in comparison with Cramer’s $660,000. He has considerably additional cash readily available, as you’d count on from an incumbent, however North Dakota is an inexpensive state to run a marketing campaign in.
So who’s Katrina Christiansen?
In her personal phrases: “I’m this kid from Pender, Nebraska (population 1,048). I grew up poor, in harsh conditions. I had to work my way through college and keep up scholarships to pay for school. I’ve worked my whole life to get to where I am. I just want to make sure that people have the same opportunity that I had, and that they’re OK, that they have the things they need in order to thrive in North Dakota.”
Right here’s her marketing campaign introduction video:
Christiansen has a compelling story and he or she’s progressive on the important thing points: She’s pro-choice, pro-filibuster reform, pro-making the wealthy pay extra taxes, pro-Ukraine, and pro-environment. She believes in local weather change and has an engineering background, so she’s pro-science.
It’s not unthinkable for a Democrat to win a Senate seat in North Dakota—each Heidi Heitkamp and Kent Conrad, who received his first time period within the 1986 Reagan landslide, have accomplished it. However Christiansen is just not a Blue Canine Democrat like them—she’s not working to the best so as to get votes.
Is it going to be straightforward for Christiansen? No. However she—and the Democrats—have momentum on their facet in 2024. This might actually occur.
