In abstract
Just one-third of the California GOP congressional delegation has pledged to simply accept the 2024 presidential election outcomes. And solely two incumbents in workplace in 2021 voted to certify President Joe Biden’s win over Donald Trump within the 2020 race.
In January 2021, seven of the 11 California Republicans in Congress refused to certify the 2020 presidential election outcomes, boosting former President Donald Trump’s false declare that he misplaced in a rigged vote.
Now, as Trump makes an attempt a return to the White Home, solely a 3rd of California’s Republican U.S. representatives have pledged to certify the outcomes this November.
Solely 4 of the 12 GOP incumbents — who’re all looking for one other time period — have promised to uphold the election outcomes. Of the three GOP challengers in California’s best districts, two — Scott Baugh in Orange County and Kevin Lincoln within the Central Valley — made the identical pledge in response to a CalMatters inquiry. And in California’s U.S. Senate race, GOP candidate Steve Garvey made the dedication in February.
The refusal to commit by most GOP congressional candidates comes as Trump and his allies are already casting doubt on the end result of the November election, stoking worry amongst election officers of disruptions and violence. Trump has peddled unsubstantiated claims about widespread voting by non-citizensargued that Vice President Kamala Harris will solely win if the Democrats cheat and questioned the constitutionality of Democrats changing President Joe Biden on the prime of the ticket.
The vote by Congress to rely all electoral votes which are already licensed by every state is the ultimate step in electing a president. Often a formality, it was something however after Trump misplaced the 2020 election to Biden.
On Jan. 6, 2021, a mob of Trump supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol. Early the subsequent morning, 147 Republican members of Congress voted to object to the counting of Electoral Faculty votes from both Arizona or Pennsylvania, or each.
All 44 California Democrats within the U.S. Home and Senate on the time voted to certify the election.
Eight of California’s present Republican members of Congress had been in workplace, however solely Rep. Younger Kim — who flipped her northern Orange County seat in 2020 — voted to certify the outcomes with out casting doubt on the election end result. “The constitution does not give Congress the authority to overturn elections. To take such action would undermine the authority of the states,” she mentioned in a press release in 2021.
She informed CalMatters she plans to uphold the outcomes of this election as properly.
Rep. Tom McClintock was the one different California Republican to vote to certify the election. However he mentioned it was as a result of he believed Congress didn’t have the constitutional authority to reject the electoral votes — not as a result of he didn’t have issues about how the election was performed.
In December 2020, nonetheless, McClintock was one in all 4 California Republicans in Congress to file an amicus temporary with the U.S. Supreme Courtroom to problem the election end result in Pennsylvaniaarguing that mail balloting “invites fraud and incubates suspicion of fraud” and claiming that “ballot harvesters” collected ballots with “no chain of custody.” A number of reality checks discovered no proof that there was widespread poll harvesting or voter fraud through the 2020 election, and courts rejected greater than 50 lawsuits Trump and his allies delivered to problem the election outcomes.
McClintock informed CalMatters he’ll vote to uphold the electoral votes for the upcoming election. “Congress’ only role in the matter is to witness the counting of the ballots. Period,” he mentioned.
In 2022, Congress handed the Electoral Depend Reform Actwhich made it tougher for Congress to object to election outcomes and clarified the vote counting course of. All California Republican incumbents who had been in workplace on the time voted towards it.
However even with that new guardrail, political consultants say efforts to overturn the election are to be anticipated now. That’s a stark departure from a decade in the past, mentioned Kim Nalder, political science professor at California State College in Sacramento.
“It’s really kind of horrifying that we’ve normalized this abnormal sort of situation,” she mentioned. “We can’t survive with this level of distrust in our basic institutions, and I don’t know what will give to change that, but something has to.”
Veteran lobbyist Chris Micheli mentioned the presidential election outcomes might be challenged once more, partly due to how shut polls say the race is in seven battleground states. Each Harris and Trump are making ready authorized groups within the case of a problem.
“It’s definitely a dark period of American history, both what transpired on Jan. 6, but also earlier that prior December, when members of Congress voted against certifying the election of the clear victor in the presidential election,” Micheli mentioned. “Those votes raised the ire of a lot of voters, particularly in California.”
The California Republican Occasion is assured that the election outcomes might be licensed, spokesperson Ellie Hockenbury mentioned in a press release to CalMatters. Nonetheless, the occasion is making ready for points that will come up.
“To make sure we didn’t leave anything to chance,” she mentioned, the nationwide and state GOP “have invested heavily in an Election Integrity operation to ensure that all concerns are addressed in real time and that Californians can cast a ballot with confidence that it will be received and counted.”
The state Republican Occasion is firmly behind Trumpwho — regardless of shedding to Biden 63% to 34% in 2020 — nonetheless received extra votes in California than some other state. In a new Public Coverage Institute of California ballot launched Wednesday evening, Harris leads Trump 59% to 33% amongst doubtless voters. However within the swing congressional districts, doubtless voters are usually evenly divided.
Rep. Ken Calvert, who represents the forty first District in Riverside Countyis the one California Republican member of Congress to decide to certifying the presidential election outcomes this time after objecting 4 years in the past. He additionally joined within the courtroom temporary difficult Pennsylvania’s ends in 2020 and advocated for a “thorough investigation” of voter fraud allegations in 2021.
Calvert’s marketing campaign didn’t say why his place has shifted from 4 years in the past.
Rep. Jay Obernolte, who voted to object to the rely, informed Southern California Information Group in 2022 that he nonetheless had “serious constitutional reservations about the things that happened in those two states” — Arizona and Pennsylvania.
Reps. David Valadao and Michelle Metal missed the vote in 2021. Metal mentioned she had examined optimistic for COVID-19whereas Valadao had not been sworn in but as a result of he additionally examined optimistic. Nevertheless, Valadao mentioned on social media he would have voted to certify the election.
The three incumbents who took workplace in 2023 will face that call for the primary time in the event that they win re-election. However not everyone seems to be answering the query: Rep. John Duarte — a Modesto farmer dealing with a fierce problem from Democrat Adam Grey — is the one one to state his place publicly, telling The Sacramento Bee he would vote to certify the presidential election. (Duarte didn’t reply to a CalMatters inquiry.)
Reps. Kevin Kiley, Vince Fong, Doug LaMalfa, Darrell Issa and Mike Garcia, in addition to Obernolte and Valadao, additionally didn’t reply to CalMatters inquiries. Matt Gunderson, a candidate for the toss-up forty ninth District in San Diego County, didn’t reply to CalMatters.
Republicans are reluctant to talk publicly concerning the problem as a result of they’re involved about shedding votes from Trump supporters, strategists say.
“It puts Republicans in competitive districts in a difficult position,” mentioned Jon Fleischman, former government director of the California Republican Occasion.
“Of course they’re going to vote to certify the election results, but they don’t really want to inflame the conservative grassroots side either, because they need them for their Get Out the Vote. So this is an issue that’s divisive for Republicans, and so I don’t think they want to talk about it much.”
For Republicans working in swing districts, the reply as to whether they may uphold the election end result will depend on which voters they wish to courtroom, Nalder mentioned.
“Coming out strongly in support of certification would make sense if the goal was to recruit some moderate voters or some voters from the other party in these close races,” she mentioned. “But if the strategy is more about turnouts amongst their base … it probably makes sense to equivocate.”
For GOP members of Congress in secure Republican districts, nonetheless, the calculation is extra about their “future in the party,” Nalder mentioned.
“Assuming Trump wins, they will need to have loyalty exhibited within the party, and so having committed beforehand to something that the party maybe goes against later would not be helpful for their political career,” she mentioned.
