Polls present Vice President Kamala Harris is completely killing it in … North Dakota?
Unusual as it’s, a median of the 2 polls taken there up to now 45 days present her doing higher there than any Democratic presidential candidate since Barack Obama in 2008 and, earlier than him, Invoice Clinton in 1996.
After all, “doing better” in North Dakota means she’s nonetheless operating a median of 18.5 proportion factors behind Donald Trump. However President Joe Biden misplaced the Peace Backyard State by over 33 factors in 2020 and Hillary Clinton by practically 36 factors in 2016. Nonetheless, the sparse polling reveals Harris nearly halving these margins.
Stranger but, North Dakota isn’t alone. Harris’ polling is outperforming Biden’s 2020 election margins in 9 different pink states, amongst these with a ballot that completed fielding since Sept. 10, as of Friday at 10 AM ET.
So what the hell is happening?
One large caveat up entrance: There aren’t that many polls of protected states. There’s been a median of simply 3.5 polls throughout 30 non-swing states since Sept. 10. And one other 11 states, plus Washington, D.C., have seen zero polls.
Nonetheless, of the 13 pink states with polling since Sept. 10, Harris is underperforming Biden’s 2020 margin in solely three. And even then, simply barely. In Montana, Oklahoma, and South Carolina, she’s underperforming by lower than 2 factors, although she’s nonetheless all however sure to lose these states.
What does this imply?
First off, her better-than-Biden efficiency in Nebraska alerts good issues for her profitable the state’s 2nd District, whose one electoral vote may very well be essential to a Harris victory. However we largely already knew that from polls of the district, which present her main Trump by round 9 factors.
The extra vital factor this information suggests is that this yr’s Electoral School outcome will extra intently replicate the outcomes of the favored vote. , democracy—or no less than one thing nearer to it.
In 2016, Trump misplaced the favored vote, getting solely 45.9%, however he gained a massively disproportionate 56.5% of electoral votes. An identical situation occurred in 2020 however flipped: Biden gained 51.3% of the favored vote and 56.9% of electoral votes, whereas Trump gained 46.8% of the favored vote and 43.1% of electoral votes.
This Electoral School drawback for Democrats has meant {that a} Republican presidential candidate has gained the favored vote solely as soon as since George H.W. Bush in 1988 (and it was his son George W. Bush in 2004). That is largely on account of Democrats profitable large margins in high-population states—e.g., New York and California—whereas Republicans, after they do win high-population states like Texas and Florida, usually win by single-digit margins.
(Texas and Florida have been left off the red-state chart above as a result of they had been determined by lower than 6 factors in 2020 and flirt with swing-state standing. And due to that, they’ve seen vastly extra polls than stable pink states.)
However Democrats’ Electoral School drawback seems to be to be shrinking this yr. Not solely is Harris overperforming Biden in lots of low-population pink states, however she’s additionally underperforming in lots of high-population blue states.
Oddly, Harris underperforming Biden’s 2020 numbers in New York and California may very well be a good factor. She nonetheless holds blowout margins in every state, however with the margins smaller, her numbers there are probably having much less of an impact on her nationwide polls.
The full inhabitants of blue and pink states the place she’s underperforming Biden is 125.4 million, however for states the place she’s beating Biden’s 2020 margins, it’s simply 64.8 million. (Once more, this consists of solely states with polling since Sept. 10.)
As an illustration, she leads Trump nationally by 1.7 factors, in line with 538’s polling common. But when she led by that quantity nationally and her polling in New York and California precisely mirrored Biden’s 2020 outcomes, then that will certainly imply she’d face steeper odds in states that can be determined by smaller margins, like, say, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. However she isn’t. Polls present her operating about even with Trump in these states.
Put one other method, it suggests Harris might want to win the favored vote by much less to additionally win the Electoral School. And that’s a superb factor for American democracy, if not additionally for Harris.
For her to have a greater probability than not of profitable the election, she must win the favored vote by 2 to three factors, in line with election analyst Nate Silver. However in previous elections, Democratic nominees had been far worse off. In any case, Clinton gained the favored vote by 2.1 factors in 2016 and obtained solely 227 of the 270 electoral votes wanted to win.
Harris nonetheless faces a silly, undemocratic drawback within the Electoral School, however she seems to be higher off than previous Democrats have been.
