All of it comes right down to Pennsylvania.
That’s not an exaggeration.
If Kamala Harris loses Pennsylvania, Donald Trump is the forty seventh president of the USA.
Now you might say the identical about Michigan or Wisconsin, however it particularly appears {that a} Democratic candidate ought to be capable to carry the Keystone State.
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Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump (Getty Pictures)
And that’s why, for my part, Kamala ought to have picked Josh Shapiro, its common governor.
I’ve nothing in opposition to Tim Walz, of soccer coach fame, however I don’t see what he’s carried out for the ticket. There’s a purpose the marketing campaign hasn’t let him do any solo interviews – a stark distinction with JD Vance, who is continually doing interviews and holding press conferences.
Actually, Vance now incessantly takes reporters’ questions in entrance of supporters, who boo the journalists, typically even earlier than they begin talking.
We’ll discover out whether or not Walz can assume on his ft when he faces off in opposition to Vance in tonight’s VP debate. Probably the most beneficiant factor I can say is that the Coach will probably be rusty.
Gov. Tim Walz speaks to his supporters at Grand Rapids Public Museum on Sept. 12. (Detroit Free Press/Adam Vander Kooy/USA At this time Community by way of Imagn Pictures)
Let’s have a look at the newest numbers.
The Actual Clear Politics common has Trump main Harris by a miniscule margin, 48.1% to 47.9%, which after all is a statistical tie.
At 538, the micro-margin in Pennsylvania is flipped, with Harris averaging 47.9% and Trump at 47.1%, one other tie.
Now think about that Shapiro, who’s extra of a average liberal than the uber-progressive Walz, was the working mate. And let’s say Shapiro had introduced in one other 50,000 votes because the home-state man. You possibly can see the place that will tip the steadiness.
Kamala didn’t decide Josh for 2 causes. That they had a tough dialog when she interviewed him, with the governor insisting on an influential function if he have been to relinquish his present job. However so what? Presidents and their veeps usually don’t see eye to eye. She most well-liked the picture of Walz, hunter and fisherman, to the prospect of two East Coast legal professionals.
However the extra necessary purpose is extra troubling. Harris was beneath stress from the anti-Israel faction in her celebration to not faucet Shapiro, who’s Jewish and a robust supporter of the Jewish state.
So the vice chairman successfully handed veto energy to this minority faction, which mainly backs the Hamas terrorists who would wipe out Israel, and would have confronted per week or two of controversy consequently. I mentioned on the time this could be a world-class mistake if she misplaced Pennsylvania.
An anti-Israel protester, in straw hat, interrupts Vice President Kamala Harris in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania. (Charlie Creitz/Fox Information)
The explanation Harris has spent a lot time within the Pittsburgh space is that the western finish of the state is far more conservative than the jap part anchored by Philadelphia. Her purpose is to carry down Trump’s margin in part of the state that he’ll simply win.
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One downside Harris faces proper now’s that she makes little information. By choosing “friendly” interviewers, corresponding to MSNBC’s Stephanie Ruhle, who has trashed Trump as a hazard to democracy, she avoids robust questions and followups.
Visiting the Mexican border was a sensible transfer, not simply because Trump has a serious lead on immigration, however as a result of Harris broke into the information cycle, the place photographs can rely greater than phrases, and tried to place herself as harder than Joe Biden on the difficulty.
In any other case, I’m simply listening to chunks of her stump speech in response to questions, beginning with how her mom raised her. Repetition is necessary in politics, however in the event you don’t throw in just a few new strains, the press is left and not using a headline.
Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a rally on Sunday, Sept. 29, 2024, in Las Vegas. (AP Picture/Carolyn Kaster)
In the meantime, Trump over the weekend known as Harris “mentally impaired,” saying Biden simply acquired outdated however she was born that approach. He additionally mentioned Harris ought to be impeached, and perhaps prosecuted, for the best way she helped run the nation.
Now that’s basic Trump. Through the use of over-the-top rhetoric, he sparks a media debate about whether or not he’s gone too far, and that debate revolves across the phrases “Kamala” and “mentally impaired.”
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Harris has properly not responded to each Trump jab. However keep in mind, Trump advantages from damaging protection as a lot as optimistic protection as a result of he’s driving the information agenda.
Right here’s a pool report from Harris at a West Coast political occasion over the weekend: “She then switched her remarks to talking about the need for comprehensive immigration reform. VP Harris remarks on the issue were very similar to her remarks in Arizona on Friday.” In different phrases, no information.
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Take into consideration this: Trump has been completely pummeled by a hostile press corps, is a twice-impeached convicted felon and carries the burden of Jan. 6. Harris has been driving a rare wave of optimistic press, and but she’s slipped barely within the polls and is tied in Pennsylvania.
And there’s no query that if she loses there, the election is over.
