At a time after we’re all deluged with conflicting polls and statistical ties, Donald Trump’s marketing campaign is unusually assured.
The Kamala Harris operation additionally sees cause for optimism, with information that late deciders are breaking her method by greater than 10%. However she nonetheless casts herself because the underdog. Her “SNL” look doesn’t change that; nor does Trump saying that RFK’s plan to take away fluoride from the water, a serious public well being advance, “sounds okay to me.”
Most media people, both publicly or privately, consider Trump will win, even because the anti-Trumpers beg their followers to end up for the VP – similar to MSNBC’s Nicolle Wallace asking her ex-boss George W. Bush to publicly again Harris.
The climax of the marketing campaign appears constructed round a gaping gender hole–with Kamala doing much better amongst ladies and Trump significantly better amongst males.
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Former President Trump and Vice President Harris are headed for a photograph end on Election Day – although morale in a single camp is evidently far larger than it’s within the different. (AP)
The view from the Trump camp is that registration figures favor Republicans, primarily based on mail-in voting, within the battleground states that can resolve the race. Practically half the nation has already voted.
Take the essential commonwealth of Pennsylvania. In 2020, Democrats had a 7.5% benefit, and that’s now shrunk to a 3-point edge.
What’s extra, simply 39% of Democrats who’ve voted there up to now are males, in comparison with 49% amongst Republicans.
Democratic strategist Tom Bonier, who seems on MSNBC, says the Pennsylvania voters is rather more Republican, and rather more male, than final time.
Harris wants an enormous turnout in Philadelphia to hold the state, and quite a few information reviews say she’s nonetheless struggling to win over some Black males.
In Wisconsin, the view from Trump World is that in-person voting (which tends to favor the previous president) is outnumbering mail ballots (which lean Democratic). Trump’s power is amongst male, white and rural voters. So, as within the case of Philly, Harris should do very nicely in Milwaukee and Madison to hold the state.
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Michigan, which Rep. Debbie Dingell just lately instructed me is a toss-up, stays an enigma, as a result of it doesn’t monitor get together registration. So the ballgame there could activate how nicely Harris does in Detroit.
The Trump camp sees related benefits in such swing states as Georgia and North Carolina, the place public polling is shut however could be an even bigger stretch for a Harris win. The election actually activates the three Blue Wall states.
Perhaps Harris ought to have picked Josh Shapiro?
Former President Donald Trump speaks throughout a marketing campaign rally in Lititz, Pa., on Sunday, Nov. 3. The Trump marketing campaign seems assured of a win primarily based on early in-person votes outnumbering mail-in ballots – which skew closely Democratic – in key areas. (AP/Matt Rourke)
In a single key state after one other, native Black leaders are quoted on the file as saying they’re nervous about warning indicators of their group:
Politico: “The city of Milwaukee is trailing the rest of the state by about 7 percent both in its mail-in return rate and in overall registered voter turnout. It’s a warning sign, even some Democrats privately say, for Harris as her campaign looks to run up the score with urban and suburban voters to overcome Wisconsin’s rural counties.”
Capital B, Atlanta: The turnout of Black voters in Georgia “has dropped from more than 29 percent” on the primary day of early voting “to about 25 percent…That’s the bad news for Harris…
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“Elected leaders and political observers say Democrats searching for a assured win in statewide workplace races in Georgia normally must hit a 30 p.c Black turnout price.”
Charlotte Observer: “As of Wednesday, Black voters had forged 207,000 fewer ballots in contrast with 4 years in the past — a drop of just about 40 p.c.”
“I’m nervous about turnout in Detroit. I believe it’s actual,” said Jamal Simmons, a former Harris aide, told ABC.
Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris speaks to reporters after delivering remarks at a church service at Greater Emmanuel Institutional Church of God in Christ, Sunday, Nov. 3, 2024, in Detroit. Former Harris surrogate Jamal Simmons told ABC that he is “nervous about turnout” within the Motor Metropolis. (AP Picture/Jacquelyn Martin)
A sunnier view is obtainable by this Politico piece, which says that public polls look like undercounting Harris’ help.
The story says that “shy Trump voters” – who don’t want to tell pollsters who they’re supporting–are a thing of the past, given the aggressive nature of his campaign.
Instead, many “forgotten” Harris voters are missed by the polls, especially Republicans frustrated with their own party: Nikki Haley voters.
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Citing a national survey, Politico says 66% of those voting for Haley in the primaries backed Trump in 2016, dropping to 59% four years ago and an estimated 45% this time. “In the meantime, their help for the Democratic presidential nominee has almost tripled from solely 13 p.c supporting Hillary Clinton in 2016 to 36 p.c indicating an intent to vote for Kamala Harris.”
To which I say: Who the hell knows?
We’re at the point now before tomorrow’s election that pollsters are analyzing the polls to figure out which ones are off. And–here comes the cliché – it all depends on turnout. Despite raising a billion bucks, if some of Harris’ potential supporters stay home, that sinks her candidacy.
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The scenarios favored by the Trump team rest largely on party registration, not polls that have missed the mark in the last two cycles.
That explains why the former president is more confident, even as he asks his advisers whether they really believe he’s going to win.
