Former President Donald Trump’s pollster, Tony Fabrizio, despatched a marketing campaign memo Thursday night time declaring that “President Trump is on the verge” of victory.
Nevertheless, even though he’s Trump’s pollster and ostensibly conducting his personal polling, he supplied no inner numbers to again up his assertion. As an alternative, he relied on RealClearPolitics polling averages, a right-wing web site whose averages are skewed towards Republicans as a result of inclusion of surveys from Republican junk pollsters.
“As the table clearly illustrates, President Trump’s position nationally and in every single Battleground State is SIGNIFICANTLY better today than it was 4 years ago,” Fabrizio wrote within the memo, referring to the RealClearPolitics averages. “In fact, President Trump holds the lead in 5 of the 7 Battleground States that account for over 270 Electoral Votes.”
RealClearPolitics’ averages far underestimated Democrats in 2022. They confirmed that Republicans had been poised to win a major majority within the Senate, which didn’t occur. As an alternative, Democrats truly gained one seat, capturing an outright majority.
To make certain, polling averages do present the race this yr to be extraordinarily shut. The New York Occasions’ averages have Trump main by lower than one level in Pennsylvania, which might tip the Electoral School to him. Consultants say the election is presently a coin flip, and a polling error in both course may swing the race to Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris.
But when Fabrizio actually had the products displaying Trump headed for victory, you’d suppose he would launch them.
Earlier in October, Fabrizio despatched one other memo that included inner numbers displaying Trump forward. In one other memo in September, after Trump’s disastrous debate with Harris, Fabrizio confirmed inner polling with Trump forward.
The brand new memo could possibly be an effort to stroke Trump’s fragile ego within the ultimate days of the competition. There’s been a number of studies prior to now that Trump’s aides deliver him excellent news to stroke his ego. They typically print out favorable headlines for him to learn, and he watches Fox Information all day to listen to the hosts heap reward upon him. That is what this memo could possibly be doing.
The Washington Submit even reported in 2022 that Trump has an aide who follows him round with a printer to print out “uplifting news articles, online posts or other materials,” whereas different aides name Trump’s allies to get them to “dial the former president to boost his spirits with positive affirmations.”
Nevertheless, the chest-thumping by Trump’s marketing campaign and different Trump allies may be extra sinister. The overconfidence may make Trump’s most fervent supporters consider victory is inevitable. And if Harris wins and overperforms polling averages, it could lead on these supporters to consider the election was rigged and make them trigger the identical type of chaos we witnessed after the 2020 election.
Trump supporters—who consider the polls present Trump successful, and betting markets displaying a excessive chance of a Trump victory—may riot once more like they did on Jan. 6, 2021.
The truth is, Trump supporters are already planning one other Jan. 6.
“Their plans include challenging results in court, pressuring lawmakers to block election certification, and encouraging protests—culminating on January 6, 2025, the day Congress will once again certify the results,” CNN reported on Thursday.
Finally, nobody is aware of what’s going to occur Tuesday night time when outcomes begin coming in. But when Trump’s pollsters actually believed he was on the “verge,” they’d present everybody the proof.
