It’s been a bizarre few months as we liberals have come to phrases with the fact of yet one more 4 years of Donald Trump-fueled chaos, instability, hatred, and madness. Not like 2017, when outraged liberals took the streets in resistance, it appears many people are simply shrugging our shoulders this time.
That is their America. They’re welcome to wallow in it.
And Civiqs polling, visualized by The New York Instances, confirms it.
For individuals who don’t know, Civiqs is a polling and analysis agency owned by Kos Media, which additionally operates Every day Kos. It’s onerous to be a reality-based neighborhood if we don’t have stable information to know the place America is and what may transfer it in the appropriate course. Thus, for the final decade, Civiqs has offered perception deep into the American psyche.
For instance, early final yr, I declared that Democrats had misplaced the immigration debate and that it was proper for President Joe Biden to work with Republicans to take the problem off the board for the elections. I based mostly that totally on this Civiqs chart, which exhibits help for granting undocumented immigrants a pathway to citizenship fell from 58% on Election Day 2020 to round 46% by early 2024—with these wanting deportation transferring up from 31% to 45% throughout the identical time interval.
Extra distressing, Civiqs’ paywalled information exhibits that Latino help for a pathway to citizenship fell from 67% on Election Day 2020 to 53% by early 2024.
The indicators have been all there. We’re monitoring them.
The New York Instances used Civiqs’ information to provide you with nifty visualizations contrasting how voters when Biden was within the 2024 race, after he left it and endorsed Kamala Harris, and now, as Trump takes workplace. As you’ll be able to think about, Republicans have radically shifted from being offended to being hopeful. Democrats are scared and depressed.
However there are a few fascinating observations inside that broader take.
Amongst all respondents, these saying they’re offended have gone from 29% to 16%. Sure, an enormous chunk of that’s pleased conservatives. However amongst Democrats, we’ve gone from 10% offended whereas former President Joe Biden was working, to six% offended when Vice President Kamala Harris was working, to 13% in the present day.
We simply haven’t seen an outpouring of liberal anger, and the reason being clear: We warned Individuals about what would occur if Trump was reelected, they usually didn’t pay attention. They believed Trump’s lies about Harris, refused to imagine him about his plans, and ushered within the dumbest, most incompetent president in historical past again into workplace.
We’re not offended. We’re shrugging our shoulders, saying, “You fucked around. Having fun finding out.”
One of many harsh realities of the Republican Occasion is that it’s closely composed of white, non-college-educated Individuals, whereas Democrats are largely a white-collar, college-educated get together. Biden funneled billions of {dollars} into crimson counties and states to rebuild shattered rural economies, bailed out the Teamsters, and enacted the strongest pro-labor agenda since former President Franklin D. Roosevelt—and voters, by and enormous, rewarded him and his Democratic Occasion by bringing again Trump.
Trump received these making $50,000 or much less by 2 share factors, after Biden received them by 11 factors in 2020, in accordance with exit polls (which aren’t excellent). And whereas the exit polls don’t escape revenue and race, it’s clear that poor white voters went overwhelmingly for Trump.
Non-college-educated white voters—an honest proxy for revenue attainment—voted for Trump 66% to 32%. In the meantime, college-educated white voters backed Harris 53% to 45%. Amongst all school graduates, Harris received 56% to Trump’s 42%. So it’s not stunning that amongst voters making extra $100,000, Harris received them 51% to 47%.
A big variety of Democrats additionally stay in blue states, which have the sort of social security nets to insulate their residents from a few of Trump’s promised abuses.
Clearly, a lot of Democrats will nonetheless undergo below the Trump administration, however his personal voters will probably bear the brunt of it—and that takes among the sting out of Harris’ loss. It’s simpler to undergo the results once we see his personal voters (in addition to nonvoters) notice the error of their methods.
As an example, when Trump rescinds Biden’s “Executive Order 14087 of October 14, 2022 (Lowering Prescription Drug Costs for Americans),” it isn’t simply Harris voters struggling the results. When Trump targets the Latino neighborhood—my neighborhood—it’s onerous to really feel too sorry when 46% of them voted for Trump, in accordance with exit polls.
Even the GOP’s most loyal Latinos—Miami Cubans—received slapped on Day 1 of Trump’s new presidency when he ended emergency parole for them, which offered an extra pathway to legally enter the nation.
On challenge after challenge, the Trumpists are working into the chilly onerous actuality of their selection. Take the Trump-loving account Jamieson on X. Right here’s them on Jan. 10:
And now right here’s them only a day into the brand new Trump presidency:
Who signed that government order, Jamieson? Who??? It’s about time individuals find out about all of the ways in which Biden did decrease costs.
Trump has additionally stopped disbursements below the Inflation Discount Act, most of which has benefited crimson America. “Republican-led states were projected to receive the lion’s share of the IRA’s grants and subsidies,” reported PV Journal, a publication protecting the photo voltaic business. “$337 billion in IRA funding for factories and renewable energy projects in ‘red states,’ significantly outpacing the $183 billion expected for ‘blue states.”
If Democrats move laws with solely Democratic votes, just like the IRA, the majority of the advantages ought to go to blue states and blue voters. However hey, Biden foolishly tried to assist them, they usually empowered the man who desires to harm them.
This is similar man who surrounded himself with working-class individuals at his rallies however who, at his inauguration, featured a trillion {dollars} of internet price in his small crowd, even seating a lot of them in entrance of his personal Cupboard picks. That’s who they voted for.
So it completely is sensible liberals aren’t as offended as we have been in 2017. Again then, we assumed the American individuals have been bamboozled, or that Hillary Clinton was a nasty candidate, or one thing one thing.
However now? Folks knew precisely what they have been voting for, and they’re going to undergo for it. And sure, that makes our personal struggling extra bearable.
And who is aware of, if even 5% be taught from their errors and determine to vote in a different way in 2026 and 2028, then we’ll be capable of salvage one thing from this clusterfuck.
One closing level, from the conclusion of The New York Instances’ article:
Regardless of the way you slice the numbers, it’s clear the American individuals have been itching for change. Good change. Scary change. Dangerous change. They wished somebody to acknowledge that the established order was not working for them—that one thing’s received to offer. Trump is nothing if not an agent of disruption.
Shit is fucked up, and persons are fed up. And the Democratic Occasion’s deference to establishments that haven’t served America effectively ended up biting us within the ass. Trump supporters are, at their core, nihilist. They don’t care about norms and establishments and traditions being torn down—none of these have demonstrably helped them. And that’s not simply MAGA but in addition a whole lot of comfortable Republican voters and even some Democrats who voted the appropriate method, regardless of feeling alienated from our financial and political courses.
Democrats will want a solution for that. In reality, the 2028 presidential major, which can begin a lot ahead of anybody realizes, will probably be all about it.
